ASTRANIS SPACE TECHNOLOGIES CORP

L8J4JMAP3496

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Astranis Defense market report (as of 11DEC2024 11:45 pm NRSS)

DoD Contracting Areas

Astranis is pursuing three Department of Defense (DoD) contracting areas and one commercial area. These include:

• Resilient GPS: Led by the Space Systems Command (SSC) as a "quick start" project, aiming for a $2 billion total. The SSC plans to procure 24-30 satellites, each costing up to $80 million. Astranis, along with Axient, L3 Harris, and Sierra Space, was awarded an eight-month design concepts contract in September 2024, with $40 million allocated for design studies. The first set of satellites is expected to launch as soon as 2028. Notably, SpaceX did not bid on this contract.
• PTS-G: A Tactical MILSATCOM in GEO shaped by the SSC, with an RFP announced in November 2024. The award is expected in 2025, with a budget of $558 million over two years, potentially reaching $2 billion. This follows a GOCO model (Government Owned and Commercially Operated).

Issues

1. Commercial Ventures: Astranis is leveraging satellite hold for IT slots internationally. However, there is uncertainty around the 2025 and 2026 budgets, which complicates revenue projections. The resilient GPS contract, led by SSC, faces criticism from the house appropriations committee for not having a well-articulated downselection strategy.
2. Leadership and Criticism: Some community members harbor skepticism about Astranis. But, this is often the case for new entrants and especially so for venture backed start-ups.
3. Investment Opportunities: If there is a time to invest it's pre-the upcoming surge programs and - in particular the PNT small sats which will require 300+ low-earth satellites.

OFFSET Key Intelligence Questions (KIQ) (OFFSET KIQ)

• Astranis' contracting opportunities relative to competitors like K2/Astrion/Radiance, Sierra Space, and L3 Harris.